Market analysis and Mostly benign rambling on the launch of the Chevrolet Volt

Tuesday marked the announcement for pricing on the long awaited Chevy Volt. See, a long time ago in 2007 a corporation called GM showed a concept car in the remote corner of it's green section through the auto show season. It was a much applauded concept but few took it seriously.

Then, the bottom fell out. 18 months later GM and Chrysler were bankrupt wards of the state and the Obama administration was their boss. Suddenly the slow track Volt was GMs top R&D priority. Batteries were abused. Frames were abused. One billion dollars disappeared into a project which was widely seen as GMs most defining moment since it's meteoric rise after WWII.

For many GM embodies the pinnacle of corporate mismanagement. In the last thirty years GM has managed to lose market share in most years. It's business model has been almost entirely on large and high powered SUVs and boat sized sedans. It was once quipped that if you want to end the war on drugs, you could simply put GM in charge of selling them.

But now the Volt is here. If it lives up to its promise, it could remake GM and blow open a whole new market segment. It goes 40 on electricity which costs two to seven cents a mile. After that a gas powered generator kicks on, allowing it to travel another 300 miles. After that the car can be filled, gas, or both to continue on. The interior is well appointed with leather and all types of electronics optional.

Sound good? There is a catch in the from of a $41000-44000 price tag. With the $7500 tax break, the Volt comes in at $33500. This price puts it in competition with the BMW 3, Acura TL and TSX, the Lexus IS, Cadillac CTS, the Audi A4 and the Corvette.

So can they do it? The luxury car market has been soft and the Volt lacks in performance... I think that's ok. At a time when Camrys come with 260 ponies and Mustangs get 30mpg there is room in every niche.

There will be just 10,000 volts in the first year, most of which will be accounted for long before the first one makes it to show rooms. Depending on initial quality and consumer reaction it seems likely that at very least GM will have a small market success on it's hand. A feather in its cap to show that GM can do innovative and environmentally sound things.

The true make or break will come down to what gas prices do. Peak oil has arrived, and if the economy picks up rapidly we will see $4 gas return, in which case the Volt would justify its premium price to a much larger audience.

Verdict

After some writing something about deliberation, I have decided not to post it.

As much as I wish I could be objective, the truth is that I still have some strong feelings about what went on in the Jury room, and I don't think I can give everyone a fair shake.

I will say that all present in the room brought strong perspectives and processes to coming to a consensus, and that I am very proud of what we accomplished.

Getting 12 people to agree unanimously on what to have for lunch is near impossible. Getting twelve people to agree on the fate of two young men who participated in an incident which resulted in a death is nothing short of a miracle.

I would like to specifically point out the contribution of Kurt Miller. Kurt is a teacher and served as the Jury foreman. His ability to keep a cool head and a sense of humor kept the powder keg of 12 people locked in a room from ever going off.

Our verdict was that Eugene Teixeira was guilty of manslaughter. We came to this unanimous decision based on the criteria that he killed Shadide Wiggins during physical fight during which he sustained injuries. There was no evidence presented which proved beyond a reasonable doubt that Eugene provoked the conflict or had the intent to cause grievous bodily harm prior to the beginning of the fight. Eugene will face 13 years in prison. He will be 36 when he gets out. He has been in jail since he was 21, and in and out of the system prior to that for several other lesser crimes.

Our verdict was that Aasim Smith was not guilty of aiding and abetting in the unlawful killing of Shadide Wiggins. While small amounts Shadide's of blood were present on Aasim's pant leg, we found this evidence did not conclusively link Aasim to any actual contact Shadide given the amount of blood in the apartment. All testimony, and the 911 tape also suggests that Chris Burnell was successful in restraining Aasim during the conflict.

Splice or "Why you shouldn't have sex with your genetically altered freak baby"

Howdy folks - as you may have noticed I am getting pretty close to the end of writing about the trial. I hope that it's been insightful (or at least readable) and am hoping to finish up by the end of the week. It's been a lot of fun to write about although it takes a lot of energy for reasons I don't entirely understand. For that reason, I've decided to take a break again and write about something fun.

SPLICE!

I'm writing this with spoilers. So maybe you should go see this fine film before you read it.


Where to begin? For starters I'd like to point out this movie crosses at least four genres. First, it is a fine Sci-Fi as allegory for the human condition movie like 2001, Sunshine, Moon, Children of Men or Event Horizon. Next, it has horror element which comes in during the third act. Additionally, the beginning has an undeniable family drama component about the challenges of having a child and balancing work with life. Finally there is a level of dark comedy that holds all the pieces together.


The film opens with power couple Elsa and Clive having just created a pair of synthetic creatures that look like slugs. These nasty little critters have been created as a way to produce chemicals to be used as medicine for livestock. Elsa and Clive are the managers of NERD, an autonomous lab which is art of a mega medical company run by an evil French looking women.

Despite their status and successes, we soon learn that all is not well. They need to deliver actual drugs from their freaky little critters, which means less time having fun. They dream of creating a human spliced critter, but the evil French looking women puts the kybosh on it as being too costly. There are troubles at home too - Clive wants babies, but his controlling but lovable wife doesn't want to deal with a pregnancy and child changing the power structure of their marriage.

These troubles seem to have a simple resolution as they try to prove that a human can be included in a spliced critter. They successfully splice the genes, and Clive is happy letting it rest at that, but Elsa wants to see if the DNA can actually be used. Clive grudgingly agrees.

Of course, things go wrong, and what was supposed to be a proof of concept that they kill has soon turned into this cute little squirrel thing.

Elsa is taken with the little critter and refuses to let Clive kill it. Soon she is taking care of it and dressing it like a child.

During this side experiment, things in the lab have gone to shit. No progress is being made isolating the needed chemical from their previous experiment, and so the parent corporation starts to take over. With their backs against the wall, Elsa and Clive take their creature to an old farm which belonged to Elsa's bat shit crazy mother.

The creature (named Dren or nerd backwards) has developed rapidly with powerful cognitive abilities  and a kicking bod. Kind of hard to explain, but by ditching CGI in favor of crazy make up, Dren is given an oddly sexy presence as a hairless hottie with a tail.

The movie shifts gears at the farm where Elsa stays home during the day giving the girly attention to Dren that she never received and Clive works long hours to keep the project going at work. Dren takes quickly to being a teenage girl, acting out, clutching a cat as her only friend and developing a crush on Clive.

Elsa realizes Dren's crush on her husband and loses her shit. She take Dren's cat which results in Dren attacking her. Elsa cuts off a piece of Dren which she then takes to the lab while Clive has his turn to babysit. Dren seduces Clive and the the audience bares witness to the second of three very uncomfortable sex scenes.

Elsa walks in on them and runs away with Clive chasing shirtless behind her. They reconvene at their old apartment where Elsa conveys her pain and dismay at the fact that Clive has cheated on her after 7 years with a teenage mutant alien love child. They agree that Dren belongs as an experiment, not as part of their life.

They return to find that Dren is dead, and they proceed to bury her and start to burn her stuff. They are sad, but there is a feeling that things will finally go back to normal between them. As they are cleaning, an employee of the company arrives with Clive's brother who knew about Dren. They have come to claim Dren as property of the company.

Dren quickly kills him (She's a he now and he has wings) and drags away Clive's brother. Elsa and Clive chase after him into the woods but become separated. Dren then stalks Elsa, finally crushing her to the ground - then in the most uncomfortable sex scene I have ever seen -  rapes her. Clive comes in time to stab Dren in the heart, but he is killed in the process. Elsa finishes the injured Dren with a rock to the head.

The film closes with a shot of pregnant Elsa in the office of the evil French lady. She has agreed to have the mutant rape incest baby for a large amount of money.

"Why is this odd movie so good?", you might be wondering. It's certainly not the sex scenes. What makes this movie really good in my eyes in the pacing and patience with character development. Elsa and Clive own 90% of the screen time, and almost all of it contributes to the viewers understanding of them as a character. Even when you hate them, it is hard not to empathize with them. This is achieved with out making the movie too slow or compromise it's message.

The Autopsy

Of all the testimony heard during the trial, it should not come as a surprise that hearing from the women who had conducted the autopsy on Shadide Wiggens was one of the most anticipated, difficult and impactful.

Dr. Mindy J. Hull, an anatomical pathologist, was the women who had conducted the autopsy. Dr. Hull is a small women who none the less entered the court room and took the stand with authority and poise. For more than an hour she testified as to the cause of death of Shadide.

As with all other expert witnesses, her credentials were first established. While appearing to be young, Dr. Hull (it's hard to think that anyone who knows what she does calls her Mindy) has been through years of school, residency, teaching and board certification. Sufficed to say she knew her shit.

After establishing her expertise, Flashner displayed a large poster board diagram of Shadide's body in the same style of the picture I have placed above. The jurors were fixated. One by one Flashner and Hull went through each of the seven wounds on Shadide's body, pointing them out on the poster board, and displaying a photograph of the body on a large LCD television.

Starting from the bottom, they were:

1. A slash across the middle finger of the left and which was 1/4" deep
2. A stab wound to the back left flank 2" deep
3. A 4 and 3/4" stab wound to the lower left abdomen which entered the liver and was produced with enough force to leave an imprint of the handle
4. A 4" stab wound to the left abdomen which entered the sack surrounding the lungs and heart
5. A 4 and 3/4" stab would to the chest which punctured the sack surrounding the heart and was produced with enough force that the handle of the knife tore the skin
6. A 2" deep stab wound which went right to left in the back left shoulder
7. A 4+" stab wound which entered along the jaw line, exited through the neck and re-entered through the clavicle, which was creatively illustrated by sticking a probe (think BBQ skewer) through Shadide's face.

The jury was speechless. This didn't look like self defense anymore.

Those that were paying close attention to the pictures of Shadide's body noticed something else beyond the new wounds - across his right arm and chest was a deeply set and wide scar from a previous knife fight.

So how had Cleo died? Dr. Hull had concluded that the three wounds around his heart, lungs and liver caused heavy internal bleeding. Cleo's body cavity rapidly filled with over a liter of blood, which he essentially drowned in from the inside out.

I was captivated.

Some of the other jurors were terrified. They found the idea of this small girlish women talking about death so openly unnerving. Some noted that she had dark eyes and theorized that she was possessed.

Below is video of Mindy testifying in another trial (also a stabbing) so you can decide for yourself.

Gowned Up for Factory Tours

Two weeks ago I was in in Minnesota for an off site for work. We toured three factory lines that manufacture medical devices, and the rotational program kids had to gown up to go into the clean rooms.

It was pretty amazing seeing how our products were made. It really reminded me that the products we make matter.

Please note the stylish beard guard I'm wearing.

A Respite of Humor and Nerdiness in the Testimony of an Audio Engineer

One of the most compelling and confusing pieces of evidence in the trial was the audio recording of the 911 call placed by Jeanine as the crime was happening. We heard testimony from both Jeanine and the Dispatcher regarding the recording, but neither could provide much credible context.

For the 911 Dispatcher it was clearly very difficult for him to have a good recollection of one of many calls he had received two years ago. Even at the time of the call he was quite confused. He can be heard on the recording advising officers that he believes a child is being abducted.

Jeanine simply appeared to be lying when she talked about what she heard on the tape.

The tape was mostly screaming. There is static, loud noises and mayhem. At times male voices were audible, but it was very hard to tell what was being said.

For the prosecution this jumbled mess of audio was important. With the defendants not testifying, and the only other two witnesses having clearly concocted an alternate narrative with counselor Murphy, the 911 call was the only piece of credible truth from the time of the crime.

To make the call more decipherable the prosecution turned to Maria Dery, a audio engineer for the Harvard Library and owner of Tamar Mastering. The first step in the testimony of an expert witness is to establish their expertise. For Maria, this meant going through her long and lustrous career producing music and restoring audio.

Maria wore the mark of a nerd. A true geek, addicted to doing good technical work for the sake of doing it right. Her suit was slightly disheveled and her body and face told the story of a women who spent many long hours in front of computers.

A point of pride during her questioning came when she described a recent forensic competition she had entered. (Who knew there was such a thing?) The competition was apparently fierce and she had placed second, working alone, against a team of four Russians. She told the story with a glow. The jury stifled laughter.

What she had produced was pretty amazing though. Maria had worked for hours and hours on the 911 call stripping away the static noise and turning down the screaming to let the background shine through.

For the first time the jury could start to hear what had really happened. Most importantly, it was clear that Chris had been in the kitchen trying to stop the fight and that Jeanine had run out (with the phone) as the confrontation devolved into violence.

Why was this so important to me?

It meant that Jeanine had been lying the day of the crime when she talked to police. On the day of the killing she had said that her boys had beat up Shadide, but the truth was she say almost nothing.

It also meant that even though Chris was speaking a lot of bullshit, he was telling the truth about being in the kitchen and intervening.

What the Cops had to Say

When Jeanine called 911, it kicked off a chain reaction of law enforcement involvement that is almost hard to fathom. Two local squad cars responded in under a minute. Close behind them were two ambulances.

Upon arriving at the scene and assessing the life threatening injuries of Cleo, and the absence of one suspect and army of resources began to descend on the scene. Almost all on duty Chelsea police responded including a paddy wagon and the homicide and violent crimes unit. The State Police sent troopers. After Cleo's death the Crime Scene techs and chemists were summoned to document the scene.

The court heard the testimony of nearly 20 law enforcement officials; from the dispatcher on up. With one exception all of them exuded a professionalism directness which was refreshing after days of clearly being fed bull shit.

Despite their professionalism however, there was very little new light shed on the case. All of them were testifying about something that had happened more than two years earlier. All they really established was that procedure had been followed for the most part.

The chemists we heard from did not bring any new revelations either. They established that neither bat had blood. They established that both boys had some occult (invisible) blood on their hands. They established that Eugene had Cleo's blood on him in several places including his hands and shirt. Aasim on the other hand only had a small droplet of Cleo's blood on the pants he was wearing.

I think most interestingly was how much different the tech's experience was than what is seen on CSI. Most of the presentations were on poster board. Every one of the techs and chemists was a women. None of them appeared to have fake breasts.

The defense tried to poke holes in the stories of the cops and techs. On several occasions counselor Murphy even raised his voice to draw attention to his points.