Market analysis and Mostly benign rambling on the launch of the Chevrolet Volt

Tuesday marked the announcement for pricing on the long awaited Chevy Volt. See, a long time ago in 2007 a corporation called GM showed a concept car in the remote corner of it's green section through the auto show season. It was a much applauded concept but few took it seriously.

Then, the bottom fell out. 18 months later GM and Chrysler were bankrupt wards of the state and the Obama administration was their boss. Suddenly the slow track Volt was GMs top R&D priority. Batteries were abused. Frames were abused. One billion dollars disappeared into a project which was widely seen as GMs most defining moment since it's meteoric rise after WWII.

For many GM embodies the pinnacle of corporate mismanagement. In the last thirty years GM has managed to lose market share in most years. It's business model has been almost entirely on large and high powered SUVs and boat sized sedans. It was once quipped that if you want to end the war on drugs, you could simply put GM in charge of selling them.

But now the Volt is here. If it lives up to its promise, it could remake GM and blow open a whole new market segment. It goes 40 on electricity which costs two to seven cents a mile. After that a gas powered generator kicks on, allowing it to travel another 300 miles. After that the car can be filled, gas, or both to continue on. The interior is well appointed with leather and all types of electronics optional.

Sound good? There is a catch in the from of a $41000-44000 price tag. With the $7500 tax break, the Volt comes in at $33500. This price puts it in competition with the BMW 3, Acura TL and TSX, the Lexus IS, Cadillac CTS, the Audi A4 and the Corvette.

So can they do it? The luxury car market has been soft and the Volt lacks in performance... I think that's ok. At a time when Camrys come with 260 ponies and Mustangs get 30mpg there is room in every niche.

There will be just 10,000 volts in the first year, most of which will be accounted for long before the first one makes it to show rooms. Depending on initial quality and consumer reaction it seems likely that at very least GM will have a small market success on it's hand. A feather in its cap to show that GM can do innovative and environmentally sound things.

The true make or break will come down to what gas prices do. Peak oil has arrived, and if the economy picks up rapidly we will see $4 gas return, in which case the Volt would justify its premium price to a much larger audience.

Verdict

After some writing something about deliberation, I have decided not to post it.

As much as I wish I could be objective, the truth is that I still have some strong feelings about what went on in the Jury room, and I don't think I can give everyone a fair shake.

I will say that all present in the room brought strong perspectives and processes to coming to a consensus, and that I am very proud of what we accomplished.

Getting 12 people to agree unanimously on what to have for lunch is near impossible. Getting twelve people to agree on the fate of two young men who participated in an incident which resulted in a death is nothing short of a miracle.

I would like to specifically point out the contribution of Kurt Miller. Kurt is a teacher and served as the Jury foreman. His ability to keep a cool head and a sense of humor kept the powder keg of 12 people locked in a room from ever going off.

Our verdict was that Eugene Teixeira was guilty of manslaughter. We came to this unanimous decision based on the criteria that he killed Shadide Wiggins during physical fight during which he sustained injuries. There was no evidence presented which proved beyond a reasonable doubt that Eugene provoked the conflict or had the intent to cause grievous bodily harm prior to the beginning of the fight. Eugene will face 13 years in prison. He will be 36 when he gets out. He has been in jail since he was 21, and in and out of the system prior to that for several other lesser crimes.

Our verdict was that Aasim Smith was not guilty of aiding and abetting in the unlawful killing of Shadide Wiggins. While small amounts Shadide's of blood were present on Aasim's pant leg, we found this evidence did not conclusively link Aasim to any actual contact Shadide given the amount of blood in the apartment. All testimony, and the 911 tape also suggests that Chris Burnell was successful in restraining Aasim during the conflict.